Christchurch Earthquake

[varkk]

Ken Ring is nothing but a charlatan who is preying on quake victims to sell his books etc. Saying something might happen somewhere some time with no real specifics is not a prediction. I was hoping all of the ringtards would go to Australia around the 20th and then we could not let them come back.

[Plasma]

He did say there would be another quake on the ring of fire, which has happened. He was 9 days out.

That is like saying its going to rain somewhere in the pacific around the 15th, the damn ring of fire is moving all the time.

Normally this conman wouldn't annoy me, but for some reason I'm finding preying on the stupid wrong at the moment.

[Pyromanik]

The stupid deserve to be preyed on. It's their punishment for being stupid.

[Growler]

hahah his website is 'unavailable'

[Tiwaking!]

The stupid deserve to be preyed on. It's their punishment for being stupid.

The strong prey on the weak, but there are more weak minds than strong ones.

hahah his website is 'unavailable'

I hope it never comes back ever again. There is enough stupidity on the internet for everyone and their moon interpreting dog.

[Emrico1]

Don't be mad at stupid people, sell stuff to them - Emrico1

[Tandoori]

Uploading snapshots from around the place. If anyone's interested.

[Growler]

i should put my latest lot up too, I just havent had a chance to even look at em. Too fucked by the time i get home.

[Dr Woomanchu]

looks like i'll be free woodawg. pyro, you driving?

Excellent. With you n Pyro we should nail it easy. I don't have a truck with a tail lifter this time so there'll be a bit of grunt needed to get the fridge  and 1 or 2 other things loaded. rest will be a piece of piss though, we've already moved almost all the small stuff.

I am planning to pick the tuck up about 9.30 so any time after 10 would be great

[Plasma]

Not sure if this has been posted, but a nice little animated video of events in the ring of fire over the last 2 months.

http://sciblogs.co.nz/seeing-data/2011/03/13/ring-of-fire-animated-map-of-world-earthquakes-jan-1-mar-1-2011-gmt/

[Bell]

He did say there would be another quake on the ring of fire, which has happened. He was 9 days out.

I can understand people venting their anger out on him, but if he BELIEVES he has some sort of system that works in quake prediction you would have to warn people

I'd rather he didn't, warning people on the ring of fire that there will be an earthquake soon is completely redundant and helps noone.
You say he was 9 days out, I disagree he was correct there was an earthquake on the ring of fire on that date, just like most days.

In other news...
I predict someone will be murdered tomorrow somewhere in the North-American region, i'm sure you will find this information very useful.

[Plasma]

I'd rather he didn't, warning people on the ring of fire that there will be an earthquake soon is completely redundant and helps noone.
You say he was 9 days out, I disagree he was correct there was an earthquake on the ring of fire on that date, just like most days.

In other news...
I predict someone will be murdered tomorrow somewhere in the North-American region, i'm sure you will find this information very useful.

 
The video I posted pretty much shows that. A 6.0+ happens on the ring about every 2-3 days

[nick247]

He also said that there wouldnt be another quake in Christchurch after the last one.

AND if you assume his prediction was based on all quakes around the world then that helps noone. Or if you assume that he meant Chch then he cant claim this one as his result.

He never said there would be a severe earthquake in Japan on the 20th. If he did the stupid people in chch/nz (the people who are stupid, not saying that all people in chch are stupid) wouldnt be panicking about it.

[varkk]

Ken Ring says a lot and isn't afraid to edit his predictions after the fact. There is also a huge chinese whispers effect going on here. People are saying he predicted this, then the people they tell are adding more details. They are also building up and reinforcing this bullshit amongst themselves so that the rumours about what he has 'predicted' are much larger than his original vague statements. I guess that is a large part of why he has gone to ground until after the 20th.

There is also no scientific basis for his theories and a simple analysis shows you would get a similar prediction rate just randomly selecting results. The japanese apparently also have an early warning system for earthquakes which can give 30-60 seconds warning about incoming shakes. This system apparently cost on the order of $1/2 billion US. They are also saying it has saved lives and allowed some factories to minimise damage by shutting off some equipment prior to the shaking starting. This almost worked at the nuclear plants to until a tsunami damaged the backup generators for the cooling system. Now don't you think they if they could increase their warning window by looking at the moon they would?

Finally a link detailing the effect the moon has on plate movement and the weather
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/03/11/no-the-supermoon-didnt-cause-the-japanese-earthquake/

[TofuEater]

There is also no scientific basis for his theories

Not true. You should read up on the basis he uses for predicting the weather - IIRC it's based on moon phases and tides, which doesn't seem too "out there".

[nick247]

That isn't the same as having a scientific base.

What varkk is saying is that although his theory sounds nice (tides and phases) it isn't actually scientifically correct. If anything it is more statistically based. And its main selling point is its statistical "accuracy" when you apply A LOT  of flexibility to the interpretation of some statistics (plus some rather vague predictions).

That isn't science and the tides and moon phases part is more window dressing.

Usually scientists agree on the base but disagree on the actual effect. They might admit that the moon could effect plates but then disagree over whether this is a negligible force on earthquakes and where they will occur. In this instance the base isn't even proven let alone the actual effects.

[Zarkov]

Not true. You should read up on the basis he uses for predicting the weather - IIRC it's based on moon phases and tides, which doesn't seem too "out there".

Give us your take on it.

[R3DM@N]

What your job growler?

[varkk]

Not true. You should read up on the basis he uses for predicting the weather - IIRC it's based on moon phases and tides, which doesn't seem too "out there".

Moon phases are due to geometric alignment effecting the amount of reflected light we see from the moon. They have nothing to do with the gravitational force between the earth and the moon.
Now while the tides do effect the atmosphere as well as the sea, our weather is driven by the input energy from the sun, the rotation of the earth, the topography of the earth and a number of other factors, and yes the tidal forces in the atmosphere do play a small role, it is however, small enough to be lost in the noise surrounding the primary drivers. The same is also true with earthquakes, and geologists say that the moon's gravitational pull can has some effect, that effect is very much limited to small localised events (nothing higher than magnitude ~2). The real earthquakes are caused by the movement along faultlines driven by the dynamic forces under the Earth's crust.
Ring's theories are nothing but psuedo-science. Ideas which have been wrapped up in scientific sounding jargon which convinces people who are otherwise unfamiliar with our current knowledge of the field. It is designed to trick everyday people into parting with their cash (For his books or the spammer's  enlargement pills or whatever they are trying to sell that day).

[TofuEater]

Give us your take on it.

I've seen a few of his isobaric maps that have been produced up to a year in advance and they don't seem to dissimilar to what the Metservice have published on the day (give or take a day or so). As a result, i can't understand why he's been dismissed out of hand - personally i'd like to see some serious computer batching done according to his theories and compared with the Metservice's own results to see which one produces the more accurate forecasts (which is ultimately what we're trying to achieve, is it not?)
 

Ring's theories are nothing but psuedo-science.

I'm not talking about his earthquake theories - but his weather predictions. I'm pretty sure i read somewhere that he uses the same methodology that was in place for weather prediction before barometric pressure was discovered and adopted as the method for determining weather forecasts.

[Ngati_Grim]

Farmers either love him or hate him.

Regarding his earthquake prediction it IS pseudo-Science and has been debunked over and over, yet the credulous and the golfers love him because he is a clown and reads cats' paws.

[Zarkov]

I've seen a few of his isobaric maps that have been produced up to a year in advance and they don't seem to dissimilar to what the Metservice have published on the day (give or take a day or so). As a result, i can't understand why he's been dismissed out of hand - personally i'd like to see some serious computer batching done according to his theories and compared with the Metservice's own results to see which one produces the more accurate forecasts (which is ultimately what we're trying to achieve, is it not?)
 

I'm not talking about his earthquake theories - but his weather predictions. I'm pretty sure i read somewhere that he uses the same methodology that was in place for weather prediction before barometric pressure was discovered and adopted as the method for determining weather forecasts.

Comparing his track record with Metservice is a nice argument, I'll give you that.

[Ngati_Grim]

Comparing his track record with Metservice is a nice argument, I'll give you that.

 
You were swayed by me saying he reads cats paws, eh?

Christchurch Earthquake

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/03/12/stark.japan.earthquake/index.html?eref=rss_world&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_world+%28RSS%3A+World%29

http://sciblogs.co.nz/griffins-gadgets/2011/03/04/learning-from-americas-ken-ring-moment/


http://sciblogs.co.nz/code-for-life/2011/03/07/ken-rings-predictions-what-happens-on-march-20th-doesnt-matter/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciblogsnz+%28SciBlogs.co.nz%29&utm_content=Twitter

http://www.drquigs.com/

[BerG]

I'd trust Ken over Metservice any day.

[nick247]

I would love to buy that cat book. But i get the feeling it has a self selecting bias.

What kind of self respecting cat lets you grab and look at its paws? Normally it would be squirming and savaging you with its claws. Perhaps that is the test that the book uses too ---> "If you look at your cats paw and poke it, then if the cat scratches your eyes out you have a bad relationship with the cat, yep, we are scientists"